Crude oil exports by sea from Russia have fallen by 900,000 barrels per day in the past two weeks compared to the last week in August, according to estimates by Bloomberg.
A storm in the Pacific and an unexplained drop in cargo traffic from the Baltic were the two main reasons for the decline in Russian seaborne crude oil exports in the first half of September.
According to Bloomberg estimates, Russian crude exports by sea for the week to September 16 averaged 2.54 million barrels per day. This was a drop of nearly 900,000 barrels per day compared to estimated shipments of 3.42 million barrels per day in the week to September 2.
According to Bloomberg, the four-week moving average suggests that Russian crude oil exports plunged below the 3 million barrels per day mark for the first time in more than five months.
Lower total shipments mean lower revenues for Putin, and these revenues will fall further from October due to a 15% reduction in crude oil export duties. Bloomberg notes that Russia’s per barrel income would be its lowest since February 2021 if the reduced export trend continues
In the first six months of the war that started in Ukraine, Russia made $157 billion (158 billion euros) in revenue from fossil fuel exports, according to the Finland-based think tank Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The EU imported 54% of this, worth about $84.7 billion (€85 billion).
Until August, total Russian oil exports were fairly resilient and only 400,000 barrels per day below pre-war levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). But the global oil market will have to prepare for: a loss of 2.4 million bpd deliver when the EU embargo comes into effect; another 1 million barrels per day of products and 1.4 million barrels per day of crude oil will have to find new homes, the IEA said last week.
In the future, the EU and the G7 hope to maintain Russian oil flows with a maximum price that would enable maritime transport services for Russian oil if that oil is sold at or below a certain price. Yet Putin can just be promise to stop all energy supplies – including crude oil, fuels, natural gas and coal – to the countries that volunteer to lower the price of Russian oil.
By Josh Owens for Oilprice.com
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