Gray expectations: tackling all three matches of week 16

Everyone still has gray expectations going into Week 16, a week when things won’t be quiet on the Western Front as Calgary and BC exchange niceties again. However, this week is heavy on the east side, which will be reflected in our rankings.

In other words: catch the east, but walk out the west.


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He hasn’t racked up yards on the ground like other QBs this year, but Jake Maier could be a fantastic blessing waiting to happen against the Lions this week (Stampeders.com)

quarterbacks

1. Vernon Adams Jr., BC ($7,072 salary): A highly valuable game this week, especially since he is highly unlikely to play another game producing 326 yards of offense without considering a major. The Stampeders are the last allowed per game in passing yards (15 more than the eighth REDBLACKS) and are one of four teams to have already allowed at least 20 passing majors. Imagine how deadly the Lions attack can be when Adams has a hand scoring touchdowns.

2. McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Toronto ($8,747): He’s pitched six majors in the past three games, and with the Argos leaning less and less, that’s a rate Bethel-Thompson should maintain. He’s not the most effective deep thrower in the league (33 percent pass completion rate with a depth of 20 or more yards), but the passing game (and fantasy users) will continue to thrive with the mean style that defined their status at the top of the East.

3. Dane Evans, Hamilton ($8,825): Don’t add Evans and expect five TD passes; it’s gravy when it happens, but the reason you’re playing against him this week is to anticipate a quick attack. No pivot playing this week has more passing majors at least 20 yards deep than Evans, who has 11 while also possessing an efficiency score of 158.3 when dialing in from long range.

4. Jake Maier, Calgary ($8,700): The lack of a running threat is a negative for Maier, but he has thrown multiple majors in three out of four starts, along with an average of 280 passing yards. Like the aforementioned Adams, Maier has developed a penchant for the deep ball after throwing six of his nine touchdowns from at least 20 yards. He definitely has the receivers to add to that total and it wouldn’t be such a shock if he ended the week as the top scoring spindle in fantasy football.

5. Trevor Harris, Montreal ($8,438): Harris’ production depends solely on how Alouettes recipients not named Eugene Lewis ($9,945) stage. As in Start vs. This week’s sit was explained, Montreal’s passing game relies heavily on the All-Star wideout, who has six of the team’s 13 league low scores over 30 yards. The crime has not yet been recovered from the loss of William Stanback ($7,604), who could return sometime next month.

6. Nick Arbuckle, Ottawa ($6,783): The good news is that Arbuckle has only thrown one interception in his last four games. The bad news is that Arbuckle has only thrown one touchdown pass in his last four games.

And then there is….

*Dominique Davis, Montreal ($5,164)

* Caleb Evans, Ottawa ($7,198)

*Antonio Pipkin, BC ($6,412)

*Matthew Shiltz, Hamilton ($7,660)

*Tommy Stevens, Calgary ($5,000)

* Jamie Newman, Hamilton ($5,000)

James Butler exploded back into the good graces of fantasy players with a strong week 15 show against the Stampeders (The Canadian Press)

To run

1. Ka’Deem Carey, Calgary ($9,234): We’re going to do double or nothing to make Carey the anchor for Week 16 lineups. The Stampeders’ passing game has had a deadly advantage since Jake Maier became the starter, but Carey leads the league with 98 scrimmage yards per game and has found the end zone in two of his last three games. If there are fireworks on Saturday night, expect Carey to light his share.

2. James Butler, BC ($7,687): The presence of Vernon Adams Jr. brought Butler’s numbers to life on Week 15, when he scored his first major in over two months and rushed for more yards (83) than his previous three games combined (61). There are more than enough touches in the BC attack for Butler to be a factor again.

3. Devonte Williams, Ottawa ($4,854): There’s a reason you’re running in the West, as seven of the top 10 rushers entering Week 16 are on the left side of the nation. Williams, ninth with 348 yards, has yet to score a major, but has become a reliable enough option not to hurt fantasy users. He had 110 scrimmage yards in Week 14, and there’s significant advantage to suggesting he has a game with over 20 fantasy points in him this season.

4. Peyton Logan, Calgary ($6,725): Logan leads the league with 164.3 all-purpose yards per game, and while he averages only 38 of those from scrimmage, Logan has shown flashes that he can take a screen or can draw for a great distance. In a week with high quality RBs, his fantasy value is higher than normal.

5. AJ Ouellette, Toronto ($5,797): Ouellette can at least contribute to the passing game, having achieved two games of at least 12 fantasy points from his reception. The Argos spread the ball out, but Ouellette has become part of that group that McLeod Bethel-Thompson often targets.

And then there’s…

*Walter Fletcher, Montreal ($3,770)

*Jeshrun Antwi, Montreal ($5,511): Full-blown timeshare in the back field of Alouettes.

*Wes Hills, Hamilton ($2,500)

*Sean Thomas-Erlington, Hamilton ($3,247)

*Javon Leake, Toronto ($3,500)

*Daniel Adeboboye, Toronto ($3,500)

*Felix Garland-Gauthier, Hamilton ($2,500)

He has been light with touchdowns this season, with only two, but Jaelon Acklin has been a routinely prolific pass catcher for the REDBLACKS this season (The Canadian Press)

Recipients

1. Eugene Lewis, Montreal ($9,945): Just a hiccup in Week 10 against Winnipeg (2.8 FP) keeps Lewis from going into Week 16 with eight consecutive games of double-digit fantasy points. Montreal’s passing game starts and ends with Lewis and although the Tiger-Cats know this, it hasn’t stopped him from posting a combined 46.3 fantasy points in his two previous encounters this season against Hamilton.

2. Tim White, Hamilton ($10,111): In the past four games, White has bagged 31 of his 45 goals for 369 yards and four majors, while also adding a bonus fantasy point or two with the occasional run and/or kickoff return. He scored at least 17.6 points in three of those games, including a 39 FP performance against Montreal in Week 11.

3. Jaelon Acklin, Ottawa ($7,953): The one thing Acklin doesn’t do is score, considering he only has two majors this season. It’s a slight dent that is more than offset by his high goal count that has helped him make five competitive games of at least 100 receiving yards, two of which came at the expense of the Alouettes’ secondary.

4. Dominique Rhymes, BC ($9,441): It’s not often that Rhymes isn’t a top-three recipient, but don’t hesitate to build a fantasy series around him this week. He looks like the dominant receiver he was earlier in the season and the addition of Adams to the lineup could be the start of a strong run at the end of the season.

5. Malik Henry, Calgary ($8,822): If he’s behind your secondary, good luck. Henry has taken at least one pass from 50 yards or better in his last three games, each resulting in majors. His 13.9 meters per route goes higher and higher with each deep connection with Jake Maier.

6. Bryan Burnham, BC ($8,454): No one was happier than Burnham to see the Lions’ passing game return to mainstream programming after hitting his fourth game of at least 17 fantasy points in the Stamps victory.

7. Kurleigh Gittens Jr., Toronto ($7,676): He’s emerging as the go-to option in the Argonauts’ varied passing game. Gittens has been targeted 33 times in the last four games and showed what he could do with a heavy load after having 161 yards and a major on 8 of 12 targets in Week 14.

8. Reggie Begelton, Calgary ($8,378): When Jake Maier looks for Malik Henry, he looks in the direction of Begelton. He has been quietly consistent, producing double-digit fantasy numbers in nine of his last 10.

9. Steven Dunbar Jr., Hamilton ($7,261): Dunbar broke from a tailspin with 18.6 fantasy points in the surprise win over Winnipeg. He had a double digit FP in seven of his first eight games and will be a solid addition to any fantasy lineup.

10. Lucky Whitehead, BC ($9,106): There’s always that one top receiver late for a breakout, and Whitehead is this week’s Exhibit A.

And then there’s…

*Keon Hatcher, BC ($5.442)

*Reggie White Jr., Montreal ($5,456)

*Nate Behar, Ottawa ($5,354)

*Markeith Ambles, Toronto ($5,319)

*Luther Hakunavanhu, Calgary ($2,904)

*Jake Wieneke, Montreal ($5,329)

*Darvin Adams, Ottawa ($5,578)

*Chandler Worthy, Montreal ($5,111)

*Jalen Philpot, BC ($2,637)

*Kiondre Smith, Hamilton ($2,500)

*Brandon Banks, Toronto ($6,018)

defenses

1. Calgary ($4,545): The plus-17 turnover ratio is too hard to ignore.

2. Montreal ($3,226): When looking at turnover ratios that are too hard to ignore, we need to look at the Alouettes facing a foul from the Ticats who racked up 41 turnovers in the league.

3. Toronto ($3,822): You could also look to Ottawa’s ($4,029) when you consider that both the Argos and the REDBLACKS are level with the fewest offensive majors in the league.

4. Ottawa ($4,029)

5.BC ($4,114)

6. Hamilton ($3,200)

Stacktastic Journey

BC: Vernon Adams Jr. ($7,072), Bryan Burnham ($8,454), Keon Hatcher ($5,442). There’s everything you love about this $20,968 stack. Remember: Adams didn’t have a major last week.

Calgary: Jake Maier ($8,700), Malik Henry ($8,822), Luther Hakunavanhu ($2,904). Count on Maier and Henry for a deep attack, but if Hakunavanhu can ever get more than 2-3 goals per game, the Stampeders will uncover a potential late-season X-factor. All this for the modest price of $20,426.

Hamilton: Dane Evans ($8,825), Tim White ($10,111), Wes Hills ($2,500). Expect large numbers from Evans and White. The hidden gem in this $21,336 stack is Hills, who did 58 yards on 10 carries last week. If Hills can add to the Tiger-Cats’ four rushing majors, this will be a great stack.

Toronto: McLeod Bethel-Thompson ($8,747), Kurleigh Gittens Jr. ($7,676), Damonte Coxie ($2,500). Coxie is working his way to favorite target status with Bethel-Thompson and if the trend continues, he’ll be in for a solid outing on Saturday. Play this $18,923 stack and get started.

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